Poll: Jack Kingston in Precarious Position

The Valdosta Daily Times says:

The position of Jack Kingston is equally precarious. Kingston’s support is exactly 50 percent with almost one in four registered voters undecided, according to the survey, making a runoff in Georgia’s First Congressional District with challenger Bill Gillespie a possibility.

This is from a telephone survey of 453 random phone numbers (margin of error 4.6%) in Lowndes County on 16-26 October by the Center for Applied Research (CAR) at Valdosta State University (VSU), Professor James LaPlant.

Update: The VDT was confused about runoffs. While a runoff is quite possible for the Senate race, which has three candidates, a runoff is extremely unlikely for the House race, which has only two candidates. So if Jack Kingston is to plummet from his precarious perch, it will happen today, and, if so, Bill Gillespie will win today.

The Valdosta Daily Times previously relegated a story on massive new voter registrations to the inside pages and put a story about Lowndes County supposedly always being Republican on the front page of the same issue. The VDT later declined to endorse anyone, because they didn't expect so much early voting! If even the VDT says Kingston's position is precarious, Kingston is perched on a precipice indeed. Bill Gillespie can win!

I have the whole poll, and among respondents who said they'd already voted, Kingston was below 50%. This is ignominious for Kingston, who in 2006 got 59% against 41% for Democrat Jim Nelson in Lowndes County.

This figure shows early voters vs. likely voters:



Chris Prine (D) and Freddie Taylor (R) are running for sheriff, Ashley Paulk (D) and G. Norman Bennett (R) for county commission chair, Bill Gillespie (D) and Jack Kingston (R) for U.S. House GA-01, Jim Martin (D) and Saxby Chambliss (R) for U.S. Senate GA-Sen, and Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R) for U.S. president GA-Pres. As you can see, the local races are not even close; the Democrat is way ahead in each of those. The national races show the Democrat trailing, but much closer in early voting. In GA-01, Jack Kingston (R) fell below 50% in early voting, and Bill Gillespie (D) is catching up. The poll showed 28% early voters at a time when more than 20% had voted early. The last day of early voting was packed in Lowndes County. Final early voting was about 22,000 out of about 57,000 registered voters, or about 38%. So if the trend shown in this survey continued, the Democrats are even closer in the national races now.

The professor who organized the survey, Jim LaPlant, tells me:

I should also note that the survey found that Democrats outnumber Republicans in our sample of Lowndes County registered voters. Our sample was 36% Democrat, 34% Republican, 26% Independent and 4% no
response. In 2004, Republicans outnumbered Democrats and the numbers were roughly equivalent in the 2006 survey.

The survey also shows 53% of voters chose the economy as their biggest issue, with terrorism coming in a distant second at 12%. Bill Gillespie's top issue is the economy, and on terrorism Bill is a decorated Iraq veteran and Jack is not.

The poll summary says 2008 has:

...a presidential election that has the potential to generate the highest voter turnout since the 1960 presidential election.

This turnout, especially of the massive number of newly registered voters, will favor Bill Gillespie, especially in Lowndes County, where the local Obama office has handed out thousands of Bill Gillespie flyers and has mentioned his name at every opportunity.

So, if you haven't voted for Bill yet, get out and vote Tuesday!

Bill Gillespie Wakes Up the Candidates' Forum in Valdosta

Bill got applause for saying what needed to be said:


Video by Gretchen Quarterman

A few of my favorite bits from Bill Gillespie's speech at the south Georgia Political Forum in Valdosta, Oct 14:

"going from analog to digital ... new leadership, new opportunities; I want to be one of those new leaders that put people first",

"Iraq war... wrong war, wrong time; it's a money pit, money that we could be better spending right here on our own economy",

"it's sad to see our number one export, our children... we need to fix that",

"I knew when America was right, because we were respected around the world and we were respectful, and I want to able to be a Congressman that reinstates that around the world with our allies",

"we're not set up for the 21st century; why don't we make something again?"

"Lowndes County, you know about service industry jobs, because you have the lowest wages ... compared to the sixteen counties that come to Lowndes County for services",

"there are things we need to do with ... 21st century in terms of education; 40% high school dropout rate; we've got to do better",

"No Child Left Behind left many people behind",

"if the Blazers had a failing season, we would get rid of the coach. It's time for a new coach, I'd appreciate to be that next coach."

The audience loved it.

South Georgia Political Forum

Bill Gillespie, plus almost all the state and local candidates for office, will speak at the South Georgia Political Forum, Tuesday 14 October 2008, at the James H. Rainwater Conference Center, One Meeting Place (off Norman Drive), in Valdosta.


View Larger Map

According to the Lowndes County Democratic Party:

First, candidates will stand at tables around the large meeting room at the conference center, answering questions and having free-form conversation with voters. Second, there will be scheduled microphone time during which each candidate can make a three minute speech. The microphone time will be moderated by Dr. Sharon Gravett, Assistant Vice President for Academic Affairs and longtime member of the AAUW. The American Association of University Women (AAUW), Valdosta Branch, organized the forum working in conjunction with Myrna Ballard of the Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce, Julie Greenhaw of the Lowndes County Republican Party, and Dennis Marks of the Lowndes County Democratic Party. For more information contact Christine James at chjames@valdosta.edu.

I don't know whether Jack Kingston will attend. Ah, looks like Jack has confirmed after all. Jack and Bill in the same room: should be interesting!